"Is turbulence dangerous?" What the NTSB numbers say

With your seatbelt on, turbulence very rarely hurts you. The NTSB went through every turbulence accident on US airlines from 2009 through 2018 and counted 123 people seriously injured. One of them was documented as wearing a seatbelt.

People do get hurt in turbulence, and pretending otherwise doesn’t help anyone. Most of them work on the plane, so the useful numbers are who got hurt and what they were doing at the time.

Who the 123 were

Flight attendants are nearly four in five, because they are on their feet with a cart while you are sitting down. The NTSB’s count of where they were points the same way: 56 of the 97 were hurt in an aft galley.

Passengers were more often on the way somewhere. The largest group whose activity is known, 7 of the 26, were using, waiting for, or walking to or from a lavatory. For 13 of the 26, the record doesn’t say.

Two cautions on that table. There are 24 people with no belt record, so “one” is the documented figure and the true figure could be higher. The report also describes a passenger on a 2019 flight who was seriously hurt while wearing a belt with an extender. The NTSB read all of this and concluded that a seatbelt reduces the risk of serious injury for everyone on board. Its word is “reduces”. It’s the right word.

“Serious” has a set meaning here: more than 48 hours in hospital, or a broken bone other than a simple fracture of a finger, toe or nose, or a short list of other injuries. A bruise doesn’t count, so more people were hurt than 123.

What happened to the planes

In those 111 accidents, not one plane had substantial damage. In 106 there was none at all. The other five had minor damage, mainly to cabin parts such as seats, ceiling panels and overhead bins.

An “accident” in NTSB terms means someone was seriously hurt or the plane was substantially damaged. Every one of the 111 qualified on the first test. That’s why turbulence is the most common kind of US airline accident, at 111 of 295, a number that reads worse than what it measures.

Deaths

The NTSB report, published in 2021, lists the most recent death in a turbulence accident on a US airline as December 28, 1997: one passenger on a 747 flying from Narita to Honolulu. I searched for a later one and didn’t find it, but a search isn’t a count, and the FAA’s yearly table lists injuries, not deaths.

The case most people remember wasn’t on a US airline. On May 21, 2024, Singapore Airlines flight 321 was at 37,000 feet over Myanmar when vertical acceleration went from +1.35 G to -1.5 G in 0.6 seconds. Investigators said anyone unbelted likely left their seat. One passenger died. Press reports of the final report, published in May 2026, give 56 serious and 23 minor injuries among the 229 on board.

The first report also records that the crew called the belt sign on eight seconds before that drop. This is why crews ask you to stay buckled whenever you’re seated, with the sign on or off.

Whether it’s getting worse

Somewhat, and from a small base. The FAA’s table, built from NTSB reports, shows 207 serious turbulence injuries on US airlines from 2009 through 2024: 166 crew, 40 passengers, and one not classed as either. Years range from 5 to 23, and the two highest are the last two, 2023 and 2024, at 20 and 23. Passengers in those two years numbered three each. Counts this small swing around. From 1989 through 2018, the NTSB found no obvious trend in the accident rate per flight hour.

The atmosphere is a different matter. A 2023 study of weather records found that “severe-or-greater” clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic rose by 55% between 1979 and 2020, from 17.7 to 27.4 hours a year at an average point. That is a real increase. It’s also about a third of one percent of the hours in a year, and it comes from a model of the air, not from flights, which steer around what they can.

What I’d do

The common advice is that turbulence is harmless. It’s better described as harmless to the person who is sitting down and buckled, which you can arrange.

Keep the belt on, low and snug, the whole time you’re in your seat. Go to the lavatory when the sign is off and don’t linger in the aisle. If you’re traveling with a child under two, the FAA says the safest place is an approved child seat or device, and the NTSB asked for more work to get them used.

The reasons for the ride itself are in how to read a turbulence forecast and where to sit for the smoothest ride. And if you’re at a window with nothing to do but think about this, try reading the ground from 35,000 feet instead.

What these numbers can’t tell you

They cover US airlines, and the belt table stops at 2018. They count serious injuries only. They can’t give you the odds for your flight, and I wouldn’t trust anyone who says they can.

The night before you fly, Skycap says how the ride should feel compared with a typical flight, and where any bumps are forecast along your route. See how the ride forecast works